Our most recent January polling of New York City Democratic primary voters identified two key trends, Andrew Cuomo is the unmistakable front-runner in the race for Mayor and two – the political left, and specifically DSA-back Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, is surging in political support in response to President Donald Trump – another trend that puts wind into Cuomo’s political sails.
Overall, Cuomo leads in our polling by 25 points in the horserace ballot and more than 40 points in our Ranked-choice vote simulation – a lead driven by his favorability ratings and performance on key issues. Mayor Eric Adams is politically toast – his ratings make clear there will be no comeback for him.
Cuomo leads as the candidate voters believe can best address 12 issues that we evaluated candidates on. With NYC in a state of crisis, this Mayoral campaign will be a thorough debate about what solutions the candidates have and critically who can best manage the complex web of city government departments and agencies – areas where Cuomo has strong and unmatched credentials.
Second, what appears to be emerging beneath the surface is a shifting political current that hasn’t gained enough attention. Specifically, the electoral response to Donald Trump’s Presidency and the surge voter who will likely come out and vote in the June primary in response to Trump.
Businesses, not-for-profits, advocacy organizations, and unions who interact with City and State governments should buckle their seat belts for what lies ahead both from and critically in reaction to the Trump Presidency. Conventional wisdom says watch out for the political right, but a longer-term view requires keeping an eye on the rise of the political far left.
The recent Presidential election demonstrated that New York City has moved to the right. Last November, Donald Trump scored the best showing for a Republican Presidential candidate in NYC since any GOP nominee going back to 1988.
However, the decisive audience of Democratic primary voters are surging left in reaction to the Trump Presidency, a trend that our polling has uniquely captured in who we surveyed – the rise of the “Anti Trump surge voters”.
Recent history is clear. A Republican in the White House, and specifically one named Donald Trump, causes a significant increase in primary turnout among New York City Democrats, and in particular among these surge voters. The last time Trump was President, New York City turnout in the 2018 Democratic primary for Governor was twice what it had been in the 2014 race for Governor, when a Democrat was in the White House, and nearly three times what it ended up being in the 2022 Democratic Primary for Governor, when again a Democrat was in the White House.
It was Donald Trump who brought us Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jamaal Bowman, the Squad, and a re-energization of the Democratic Socialists of America in Congress, the New York City Council, and in the halls of Albany. We are already seeing signs among candidates and elected officials to try to “Trump Proof” New York state.
Trump’s November election has again set the political pendulum swinging to the left. The horrified reaction among Democrats to Donald Trump is causing the political left to surge and this trend will significantly shape the contours of the Mayoral race – propping up Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.
Just this past week, Mamdani announced that his campaign coffers are now flush thanks to a $2.82 million grant from the City’s Campaign Finance Board’s public matching program – a massive fundraising haul for a candidate who has only been in office since 2021.
In our polling data, Mamdani’s support had him tied with Mayor Adams with each having 9% of the vote, with his level of support well ahead of his standing in the other polling by a factor of 3.
Mamdani is gaining momentum and while he won’t win the mayoral race, he will impact the race more significantly than conventional wisdom suggests. As Mamdani continues to raise even more money and his profile and momentum further increase, the other candidates in his wake will need to tack left, including City Comptroller Brad Lander and former Comptroller Scott Stringer, leaving a bigger open lane for Andrew Cuomo. With many of the other candidates tacking left, a larger middle lane will emerge, which is prime for Cuomo to capitalize on.
It’s worth watching Mamdani’s political coattails, too, as he may well also pull a number of his fellow Socialists over the finish line in a number of the City Council races, in particular the 10 open seats.
The impact of the Trump Presidency is already being felt in the New York City Mayoral race, with the political pendulum swinging to the left and creating a wider middle lane for Cuomo to potentially benefit from.
Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche are partners at the Democratic polling, data analytics, and public affairs firm Honan Strategy Group. Honan is also co-president of the New York Metro Chapter of the American Association of Political Consultants.
