Tenth grade students at the private Collège Mont Sacré-Cœur school in Quebec typically take a field trip to New York City each April. This spring, they plan to stay in Canada. Principal David Choinière made the decision after President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Canadian imports earlier this month. He felt sending his students to the U.S. in the current climate would represent a “contradiction” and a failure to take reality into account.
Those secondary school students are among the many would-be New York tourists who are expected to cancel or delay travel plans to the U.S. this year in protest of growing hostility from the White House. Tourism from the north could drop by as much as 10% this year, estimates the U.S. Travel Association, a nonprofit industry advocate. That would mean the loss of roughly 2 million visitors, $2 billion in spending and 14,000 tourism-dependent jobs nationwide.
If Canadian travelers prove reluctant to visit the states through the summer, New York’s tourism economy, which is fed bountifully by Canadians, will feel the pinch more than most. Of the 64 million visitors to New York City last year, about one million hailed from Canada, according to New York City Tourism + Conventions, the city’s tourism bureau. Only the United Kingdom sent more of its residents than Canada.
The potential impact is not yet clear – the leader of the city’s hotel trade association says they haven’t seen a decline in Canadian travel yet, but Canada’s largest airline said it is paring capacity to U.S. destinations as it gears up for a potential slowdown in demand.
Canadians bring their wallets when they travel south. Travelers from the country spent $1.8 billion statewide in 2023, according to data from Tourism Economics, a division of Oxford Economics. For context, tourism from overseas accounted for $15.1 billion in spending statewide. Canadian tourism’s economic impact on New York has been rising, too: the $1.8 billion figure was up 67% from 2022 and 24% from pre-pandemic levels.
The firm estimates the average Canadian visitor to New York spends about $1,020.
The U.S. Travel Association warned regions that rely on Canadian tourism — including New York, but also Florida, California, Nevada and Texas — of likely “declines in retail and hospitality revenue, as shopping is the top leisure activity for Canadian visitors.”
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has encouraged his constituents to think twice about where they spend their travel budgets this year. “Now is the time to choose Canada … It might mean changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites and tourist destinations our great country has to offer,” he said in a Feb 2. address to residents.
Trudeau’s comments came after Trump issued an executive order on Feb. 1 imposing a 25% tax on imports from Canada. The U.S. president agreed to a one-month pause on the levy two days later but told reporters this week the tax “will go forward” after the delay.
There is little data available yet to show whether Canadians are already traveling less frequently to New York or other U.S. destinations; the tariff negotiations are ongoing and travel trends tend to have a lag because of advanced bookings.
Anecdotal reports offer a mixed picture. At WestJet Airlines, Canada’s second largest carrier, CEO Alexis von Hoensbroech had seen a 25% decrease in travel from Canada to the states as of mid-February. The company had not yet altered its services but von Hoensbroech said changes would follow if the trend continues.
“We believe this change is at least partially linked to the differences in currency exchange rates; however, we are actively reviewing and working with the Government of Canada on the potential impacts of proposed tariffs as well,” a WestJet spokesperson wrote to Crain’s.
On the other hand, Air Canada, the country’s largest airline, told investors earlier this month it had not yet seen a decrease in demand for U.S. travel but is preemptively making changes in anticipation of a potential dropoff to come.
“We are proactively acting in specific markets like certain U.S. leisure destinations such as Florida, Vegas and Arizona,” Mark Galardo, Air Canada’s executive vice president of revenue and network planning, said on the company’s Feb. 14 earnings call. “As such, we are reducing our capacity exposure to these markets from March onward.”
A spokesperson for Air Canada declined to answer a question from Crain’s about potential impacts to the airline’s service in New York.
“We are anticipating proactively that there could be a slowdown,” Galardo added. “We don’t see it right now. In our near-term bookings in the U.S., we don’t see any major slowdown or anything substantial that would change our view of the market.”
Similarly, Vijay Dandapani, president and CEO of the Hotel Association of New York City, has not yet seen a sizable decrease in Canadian stays in the city. He recalled similar worries during the first Trump term when the administration restricted travel from some foreign countries. People initially thought tourism would slow, he said, but that was not what he ultimately saw.
However, if it does become true that 10% fewer Canadians visit New York this year, Dandapani said that would make a noticeable dent in the hotel industry here. “Canada is a big source of business,” he said. “That’s a pretty hefty ratio if it comes to pass for New York.”
