If there were any lingering doubts that Eric Adams was serious about running for re-election while up against a federal prosecution, dismal approval ratings and a growing list of serious challengers, they weren’t on display earlier this month at the Apollo Theater.
Adams’ annual State of the City address functioned as a warning shot to his challengers, reminding them of the advantages he still maintains: an image as an avatar for the working class, alliances with powerful labor unions and business interests and the ability to spread his message through the far-reaching channels of city government. The gathering underlined a truth that might have seemed unthinkable a few months ago, in the immediate aftermath of his criminal indictment: Adams still has a fighting chance at winning re-election.
“There was a perception that Eric is in deep, deep trouble — maybe finished,” said Chris Coffey, a Democratic strategist. “I don’t think that’s right.”
Poll after poll shows that New York City voters are unhappy with Adams’ leadership and concerned about the state of the city. Sixty-four percent of voters disapproved of Adams’ performance in an October New York Times-Siena College survey, which ranked crime as residents’ top concern — followed by immigration and the cost of living. Voters across the country and around the world have been rejecting incumbents in favor of their challengers, frustrated by inflation and post-Covid malaise.
But even if some voters blame the mayor for crime rates that remain elevated since the pandemic, the sour mood might favor Adams — the centrist former police captain — over his more left-leaning declared challengers. The wild card remains former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a fellow moderate who is clearly relishing the will-he-won’t-he speculation over his possible City Hall run.
“History has shown us that when public safety is a dominant issue — 1977, 1993, 2021 — it tends to favor the moderate candidate,” Coffey said. “When folks feel safe, people are more willing to take a chance, like Bill de Blasio in 2013.”
Adams’ credibility on crime has been weakened by high-profile subway attacks and an increase in some offenses under his watch, such as felony assaults. And the law-and-order mayor has overseen turmoil at the New York Police Department: discord and scandal led to the departure of two commissioners in three years, and federal authorities are now investigating a former top officer whom Adams had championed.
Still, shootings and overall subway crime are on the decline, and Adams believes he maintains an upper hand over his rivals. “When others wanted to defund the police, we defended them,” he reminded his audience at the Jan. 9 State of the City speech.
The mayor has also developed a more nuanced message on public safety compared to his first year in office, when he defied statistics and proclaimed, “In my professional career, I have never witnessed crime at this level.” (Adams made that remark in May 2022, months after taking office — creating the awkward impression that he was questioning his own leadership on crime.)
These days, Adams toes a different line, stressing that crime is generally decreasing but quickly acknowledging that New Yorkers have yet to feel the benefits.
“Perception is reality for folks,” Adams said in December. “No matter how good our numbers are, people got to feel safe.”
‘The default is sticking with the mayor’
Adams is a greatly diminished figure compared to when he was first elected. At the behest of Gov. Kathy Hochul, he has largely purged his administration of the high-level staffers who were swept up in a web of federal probes while others have departed on their own — an exodus so stark that Adams began his State of the City speech by thanking the staffers who remained.
Yet for all his woes, the mayor has not been abandoned by two groups whose support could prove decisive: organized labor and big business.
“The business community has shared most of the mayor’s priorities, whether it’s public safety or affordable housing, or challenges with mental health and homelessness,” said Kathryn Wylde, president and CEO of the Partnership for New York City. “From that standpoint, he’s hit all the right notes, and they feel that he’s taking the city in the right direction. Obviously, his legal problems and the cloud that’s put over his administration is unfortunate and hopefully will be resolved relatively quickly.”
Here, too, Adams may benefit from the electorate’s rightward drift, embodied by Donald Trump’s well-documented gains in the five boroughs last fall. Although some progressive challengers like Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani have cast Adams as beholden to the real estate industry, his pro-business posture has so far not emerged as a major issue in the race.
“In marked contrast to the de Blasio era, there’s no one who’s out there aggressively demonizing business and real estate,” Wylde said. “We’re grateful for that because it sets a much better political tone in the city.”
Instead, ably riding the shifting political winds on housing, Adams has embraced new development as the center of his affordability agenda, embodied by his City of Yes plans and newly announced goals to build aggressively in Manhattan. Those initiatives have endeared Adams to the real estate industry — no small consideration for him politically, since real estate developers could be a key source of campaign donations now that he has been denied millions of dollars in public matching funds due to allegedly illicit fundraising.
Adams’ emphasis on the city’s affordability crisis has also kept him in the good graces of the labor unions that endorsed him in 2021, whose members worry constantly about being squeezed by the rising cost of housing, one union official told Crain’s. Unions’ mass-mobilization power could make or break Adams’ re-election, and he has delivered on some of their top priorities: signing a hotel-licensing bill long sought by the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council, and raising wages for city workers who make up the union DC37.
“Looking at the landscape the way it is, you’d be hard-pressed to make a decision to endorse against him,” the union official said. “The default is sticking with the mayor.”
Much could change between now and the June 24 primary election. Federal prosecutors have suggested they may file additional charges against Adams, further harming his image. His trial, set to begin in mid-April, could result in convictions on felony charges including bribery and fraud — although President-elect Trump has suggested he may pardon Adams.
Then there’s the possible candidacy of Cuomo, widely seen as Adams’ biggest threat due to his high name recognition, centrist credentials and expected popularity among the same Black voters that Adams needs to win.
But assessing the race today, the notion of Adams winning a second term after being indicted seems plausible. Never missing a chance to paint himself as the underdog, Adams went off-script at the end of his Jan. 9 speech to predict a comeback.
“There were some who said, step down. I said, no, I’m going to step up,” he said. “Even dark moments are not burials. They’re plantings.”
