Elise Stefanik has her sights on Albany. She has her work cut out for her.
The North Country congresswoman, denied her ambassador to the U.N. post, is now seriously contemplating running for governor next year. On paper, she looks formidable — she’s a major personality in the GOP and she may bring more to the table than Lee Zeldin, who came within 7 points of beating Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022.
But Stefanik is no lock to win, or even be particularly competitive. For reasons that are at least partially out of her control, her potential gubernatorial bid could fare much worse than Zeldin’s.
Next year’s political environment is shaping up to be very different from 2022’s. Three years ago, Donald Trump wasn’t in the White House and New Yorkers were deeply concerned about rising crime and immigration. Zeldin was not especially charismatic, but he was an aggressive campaigner who put Hochul on her back foot when it came to crime. As Hochul focused on abortion rights, Zeldin railed against the murders, shootings, and retail theft in New York City.
Zeldin captured the zeitgeist, and he was rewarded for it with the best showing by any Republican gubernatorial candidate since George Pataki’s re-election win in 2002.
It’s too soon to tell what exactly next year will look like, but all signs point to a Trump backlash not so dissimilar to 2018. Trump’s tariffs have destabilized the economy and threatened New York towns along the Canadian border. Inflation may worsen. DOGE and Elon Musk are hated by many Americans.
Assuming Stefanik is the GOP nominee — and not Mike Lawler, the Republican congressman also exploring a bid — she’s not going to benefit from the large number of Republican-curious Democrats and independents who filled in the bubble next to Zeldin’s name in 2022. Democrats are motivated to vote against Republicans and independents are remembering why Trump was so wearing in the first place.
In 2018, Marc Molinaro managed only 36% against Andrew Cuomo, who was then seeking a third term. While Stefanik can expect to outperform Molinaro, it’s not clear how she matches Zeldin’s 47% with Trump back in power. She’ll have the problem many frontline Republican lawmakers are facing: a polarizing president dragging them down.
Hochul is not as formidable as Cuomo in his heyday — her own job approval ratings are middling — but she’s remade herself as a tough-on-crime Democrat, weakening various criminal justice reform laws and sending National Guard troops into the subways. She’s protected her right flank much more. Stefanik may struggle to land the same blows Zeldin did.
And then there’s Stefanik herself: a proud, unabashed Trump supporter, much in the same way Zeldin was. In 2022, Zeldin was able to distance himself at least slightly from Trump because Joe Biden was president. Stefanik won’t have the same luxury.
Hochul’s playbook against the congresswoman isn’t hard to imagine. Your president hasn’t brought inflation down and your president’s various tariffs have already damaged the local business environment. There’s not much of Trump’s agenda, so far, that has benefited New York.
Stefanik could say that life in New York is still expensive and that’s Hochul’s fault. She could denounce congestion pricing, which has been successful but is disliked north of the city. She could gain traction.
The reality, though, is that most Republicans are not going to enjoy campaigning in 2026. Midterms for the party in power tend to be rough. Second-term midterms are especially rough. Ask any Republican who lost an election under George W. Bush in 2006, or any Democrat under Barack Obama in 2014.
Hochul, assuming she survives a primary, may well be sworn in for a new term in 2027.
Ross Barkan is a journalist and author in New York City.
