New York City officials cut their forecast for the number of international tourists this year by 17%, saying President Donald Trump’s tariffs and hard-line policies on immigration are deterring visitors.
The city now estimates it will welcome 12.1 million foreign travelers in 2025, down from a December forecast of 14.6 million, according to a report released Thursday by New York City Tourism and Conventions, the city’s tourism agency. Overall, officials expect 64.1 million visitors, a drop of 3.5 million from the previous estimate.
The decline in anticipated foreign visitors is a result of the Trump administration’s tariffs, “divisive policy” and “high-profile detainments” of immigrants, said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, a tourism consulting firm.
“Undoubtedly the effects of tariffs on prices and disposable income are real,” Sacks said at a briefing to discuss the report.
The forecast change comes amid a broader trend of declining foreign visitors to the US. The number of people who traveled from overseas fell 2.4% in February compared with the prior year, and dropped 11.6% in March, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office. In California, state officials this week warned of a 9% decline in foreign visits this year because of negative global sentiment about Trump.
A decline in foreign visitors would hurt a part of the city’s economy that’s shown strong signs of recovery post-pandemic, when travel bans and lockdowns decimated the city’s leisure and hospitality industries. International visitors spent $23 billion in 2024, according to city Comptroller Brad Lander. They typically stay longer and spend more money than domestic visitors, tourism officials said.
The largest sources of foreign visitors are the UK and Canada. Visits to the New York City area from Canada by air fell by 7% during the first four months of 2025 to 900,000, compared with the same time period in 2024, said Glenn Hollister, vice president of sales strategy and effectiveness at United Airlines Holdings Inc.
New York is also expecting fewer domestic visitors this year than it earlier estimated, revising its prediction to 52 million from 53 million earlier.
