Tourism is expected to decline slightly in New York City — primarily because of President Donald Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51st American state.
New York City Tourism + Conventions, a semi-independent agency of city government, on Thursday reduced its forecast for visitors this year to 61.4 million, about 3 million less than it had expected in February and about 300,000 short of last year’s total.
The biggest decline will be in international travelers, who are expected to drop by 2 million, from 14.1 million visitors from 12.1 million. International tourists are especially important because they stay longer and spend more money than those visiting from elsewhere in the U.S.
“We are in uncertain times and there are more questions than answers,” said Julie Coker, the new CEO of the agency.
The decline is smaller than might have been expected because New York may benefit from domestic travel. Surveys show that 80% of Americans say they are reconsidering their travel plans, either to stay closer to home or substitute domestic travel for trips abroad.
“There may be some opportunities for New York here,” Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, which worked on the forecast for Tourism + Conventions. The number of domestic travelers is expected to increase by about 1%.
And travel to New York has remained strong so far this year.
Hotel occupancy in March and April of this year matched 2024 numbers at 85% adjusting for Easter occurring later in the year, according to the data tracker STR. Room rates continue to rise. The industry benchmark of revenue per room jumped to $319 a night this year from $273 last year, although the change in Easter may have been a factor in such a big increase.
Airline passenger volume through the three major New York area airports was also unchanged for the first four months.
Growth is slowing, Sacks said, but Tourism Economics expects the country to avoid a recession.
But New York is clearly paying the price for Canadian anger over President Trump’s threat to impose big tariffs on Canadian goods and his claim that Canada would be better off as the 51st American state, reiterated this week at his meeting with new Canadian prime minister Mark Carney.
Canadian land travel to the U.S. fell by 23% in February and whopping 32% in March. Air passenger traffic from Canada at the three major airports fell by 7% in the first four months.
Hotels and airlines expect Canadians to continue to shun New York, where they represent the second- largest source of international visitors. Hotel bookings from Canada are projected to be down by 30% for the summer and fall, said Vijay Dandapani, president of the Hotel Association of New York City.
Colleges and universities have been cancelling planned visits to New York, which will show up in many fewer bus trips to the city in the summer and fall, said Charmaine Singh, who is the lead on the agency’s Canadian efforts.
Airlines have already reduced capacity to Canada by 10%.
The forecast does see a recovery next year, spurred primarily by increased travel to New York for the eight World Cup soccer matches to be held at MetLife Stadium in New York, including the final on July 16.
Even with that boost, New York City won’t exceed its 2019 tourism record until 2027, although that will be two years before the U.S. as a whole sets a record, according to the forecast.
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