The Port of New York and New Jersey handled more inbound shipping containers than any other U.S. port in March, snagging the top spot from the typically busier ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach on the West Coast. But observers say the spike was just a rush by shippers to avoid tariffs and that the port is bracing for a plunge in the coming months.
New York and New Jersey’s terminals handled nearly 517,000 20-foot-long containers filled with furniture, clothes, toys and other goods — that’s about a 10% increase compared to the same time last year, according to the most recent Port Authority data.
The swell of goods to the tristate’s ports in March highlights that shippers and companies are stocking up ahead of steep new tariffs planned by the Trump administration on dozens of countries’ goods in July. Tariffs of at least 145% had been in effect on most Chinese goods through May 14. However, the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause of of tariffs on each other’s goods after a weekend of high-level talks.
China is the largest importer of goods to New York and New Jersey, but those items make up a much smaller overall share of the region’s imports, roughly 25%, compared to the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, which receive roughly 45% and 60% of their goods from China, respectively.
West Coast ports have been feeling the pain of less cargo coming in due to ballooning tariffs: The week of May 5 the Port of Los Angeles saw a roughly 35% drop in the number of containers that arrived compared to the same period last year, according to port data. Shippers have canceled a quarter of the ships scheduled for May due to the light volume, the port said. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey declined to provide similar estimates. Port spokeswoman Amanda Kwan said the agency does not have a specific estimate for a potential drop in cargo in the coming months because it’s too far into the future.
There is a lot at stake: Less cargo passing through New York Harbor means less work for port employees, less economic activity flowing into the region and potential shortages of products from clothing to furniture to cars for city businesses. At this point, port and business leaders say it’s unclear just how many jobs could be at risk (port operations employed roughly 4,400 maritime workers in 2024) and how big the blow could be to the region’s economy.
“There certainly has been quite a bit of front loading in the first quarter of the year in anticipation of the tariffs,” said Beth Rooney, port director at the Port Authority. “We do anticipate that there will be a drop off of cargo in the second half of the year, but that’s based on what we know now.”
Rooney said she’s hopeful that the conditions for shippers and companies could improve given that the Trump administration has repeatedly shifted its stance on tariffs in recent weeks.
“There’s a lot of volatility and uncertainty,” said Rooney, “so I think we’ll all be cautiously optimistic that some of these conditions will change for the better.”
Vessels brought in nearly 1.2 million containers of goods from China to New York Harbor last year. Other top importers to the region include India, Vietnam, Italy, Thailand, South Korea, Germany and Turkey. That diversification of cargo, Rooney says, “bodes well” for the metro region, at least in the short term.
The uncertainty has left shippers and sellers that do business in the New York region scrambling to blunt the economic pain on tariffs by pushing up their schedules on shipments. The sudden drop in cargo at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach could be a preview of what’s to come for New York and New Jersey, albeit it less drastic.
“I think everybody’s just trying to figure out where this whole thing lands,” said John Nardi, president of the Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey. “Everybody is advancing their shipments ahead of the tariffs coming into effect, as much as they can, anyway.”
Food and beverage imports — spirits, vegetables, fruits, nuts and flour, among others — make up a large share of the imports coming into the region’s shipping terminals. That reality has shop owners on edge. “There’s a lot of fear right now” for local restaurants and other retail stores that sell those goods, said Jessica Walker, the president and CEO of the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce, which represents the more than 125,000 businesses across the borough. Collectively, those companies generate $939 billion in annual gross domestic product, according to the chamber.
“A lot of business owners, particularly small business owners, are scared,” said Walker, who added that the potential for a spike in prices is the overwhelming concern among local businesses. “It’s an extremely challenging environment right now,” she said.
Vehicles are another top commodity to the ports that could dent the volume of cargo coming in.
In 2024, more than 410,000 vehicles passed through New York Harbor — the sixth-largest import into the region’s port behind furniture, plastics, heating equipment, electrical machinery and beverages. Rooney acknowledged that auto shipments are “much more sensitive” to fluctuations in tariffs. The Port of New York and New Jersey hasn’t seen a dip in vehicles coming to the region so far, but without a major change in the Trump administration’s policies, it likely will, Rooney said.
The Trump administration, on April 29, announced plans to “soften” the impact of auto tariffs from stacking on top of other newly imposed levies by easing some fees on imported parts, such as steel and aluminum. But the 25% tariff on imported vehicles imposed in April remains in place, and most of the new 25% tariffs on auto parts still went into effect on May 3.
Under the change, automakers can essentially apply to the federal government for a partial reimbursement of the auto parts tariffs for every vehicle assembled in the U.S., a measure which will be phased out after April 2027.
Daniel Ives, managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities, wrote in an April 30 memo that while the shift is “less bad then the original auto tariff slate” automakers are still facing a “brutal situation” that’s likely to slow the flow of vehicles and parts into the U.S.
“This continues to be a Twilight Zone situation for the entire automaker industry,” he wrote, “which continues to be paralyzed by further cost increases and uncertainties that will change the paradigm for the U.S auto industry for years to come.”
