Marvel Studios Panel in Hall H at SDCC in San Diego, California on July 27, 2024.” width=”970″ height=”661″ data-caption=’Robert Downey Jr. speaks onstage during the Marvel Studios Panel in Hall H at SDCC in San Diego, California on July 27, 2024. <span class=”lazyload media-credit”>Jesse Grant/Getty Images for Disney</span>’>
2019’s Avengers: Endgame became the highest-grossing film of all time and marked a zenith for the superhero genre. But when its sequel, Avengers: Doomsday, hits theaters in 2026, it will enter a far different Hollywood ecosystem. Doomsday must contend with not only a downturn in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU)’s fortunes, but an industry-wide cooling on capes and cowls overall.
Amid an avalanche of hit-or-miss Disney+ television content and lingering pandemic-related challenges, several MCU films have struggled critically, commercially, or both. The DC Extended Universe mercifully ended after nine consecutive financial disappointments—including megaflops The Flash and Joker: Folie a Deux. Though superhero films account for 13 of the 25 highest-grossing films in the U.S. from 2021 to 2024, comic book intellectual property (IP) no longer guarantees box office success after nearly two decades of steady output.
Since 2016, excluding the Covid-disrupted 2020, the superhero genre has accounted for an average of 21 percent of the annual domestic box office, according to The Numbers. It has become an essential staple of theatrical moviegoing, and further declines would harm an already reeling business.
The upcoming releases of Marvel’s Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic Four, as well as DC’s Superman, will speak volumes about the health and longevity of the superhero genre. Let’s explore the broader context of these upcoming superhero movies to better understand what’s at stake for the genre and the industry.
Thunderbolts* (May 2)
The MCU famously launched with B-tier characters in Iron Man, Captain America and Thor—comic book staples who long played second fiddle to Spider-Man and the X-Men in the Marvel hierarchy. Obviously, it worked. But is this strategy sustainable? Thunderbolts* follows a group of ragtag C and D-listers and requires audiences to know (deep breath): all four Captain America movies, Black Widow, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, Ant-Man and more. That’s a lot of homework for what is meant to be a blockbuster romp, underscoring the strain of the franchise’s interconnectedness at this point.
Thunderbolts* needs to earn at least $450 million worldwide, if not more, to break even with an estimated budget between $150 million-$200 million and a marketing budget likely in the nine-figure range. However, six of the MCU’s last 12 theatrical features have failed to surpass $500 million at the global box office, suggesting over-saturation and inconsistent quality. As of this writing, projections show Thunderbolts* opening lower than Captain America: Brave New World ($89 million) in the U.S., per both The Numbers and Box Office Theory. Two weeks before release, Thunderbolts* also trails Brave New World in awareness and interest at the same point, according to survey data from tracking service The Quorum.
Failure to turn a profit will illuminate a few unfortunate realities for Marvel and the superhero genre:
Outside of Shang-Chi, the studio struggles to successfully launch commercially viable new-to-screen characters that can support new franchises;
This places the burden of reliability on finite legacy characters, many of which are getting long in the tooth (is it any surprise that Doomsday will feature 50 known characters from the MCU?!)
Conversely, success will show improved audience appetite for new superheroes after the underwhelming debuts of Eternals, Blue Beetle and The Flash in recent years.
Superman (July 11)
No blockbuster in recent memory faces more pressure than James Gunn’s relaunch of the Man of Steel and the DC Universe at large. But based on historical track record, Superman may face an uphill battle despite the character’s immense power.
Man of Steel earned a profit with $670 million at the worldwide box office against a $225 million budget, but failed to meet studio expectations amid internet-shattering polarization. The same goes for Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Superman Returns, 2006’s admirable but ill-advised revival of the Christopher Reeve-era franchise continuity, lost money with just $390 million against a $275 million budget! Marvel’s Chris Evans-led Captain America films proved that earnest boy scouts can still resonate with modern audiences. But Clark Kent hasn’t headlined a no-doubt-about-it theatrical hit since 1980. Tell that to whoever covers the box office at the Daily Planet.
Gunn’s Superman aims to jumpstart a 10-year franchise plan for DC Studios that spans feature films, television series, video games and more. Anything less than universal goodwill and healthy box office returns will not only derail the expansive franchise, but also likely doom Superman as a theatrical brand. (The character continues to thrive on the small screen). To say there’s a lot riding on Superman is like saying carbon is an important element for life on this planet. Much of parent company Warner Bros. Discovery’s perceived value in any hypothetical consolidation stems from the belief that the DC IP is highly valuable. If Superman flops, the fallout will make, well, Fallout look like a paradise.
The good news is that, as of March, The Numbers projects Superman to generate upwards of $300 million at the domestic box office across its run (subject to change over the coming months). If that holds true and the movie’s U.S. vs international splits fall in line with BvS, Man of Steel and Superman Returns, it should surpass $700 million worldwide.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps (July 25)
This will be the 21st century’s third attempt to create a workable big screen Fantastic Four movie, but the first under Disney. The 2005 version squeaked out a profit ($334 million worldwide against a $100 million budget). The 2007 sequel was less profitable. ($302 million gross vs $130 million budget). The 2015 reboot, plagued creative differences between Fox and filmmaker Josh Trank, infamously lost the studio $100 million when it grossed just $168 million worldwide on a $120 million budget. Much like Slytherin, there’s a powerful brand stigma to overcome here.
Is this spotty track record due to poor quality films or because audiences simply don’t view Marvel’s first family as a big screen draw? (Stretchy powers always look silly on-screen, after all).
I’m betting it’s the former. The film’s first trailer, which showcased a delightfully disconnected story from the larger MCU with a distinctive anachronistic aesthetic, was a hit. It rang up 202 million views across all platforms in its first 24 hours, third-best ever for the MCU behind Deadpool & Wolverine (365 million) and Spider-Man: No Way Home (355 million). A star-studded cast full of well-liked names has only boosted pre-release interest thus far.
Yes, it’ll face stiff competition from Jurassic World: Rebirth and Superman. But fans will be hungry for breadcrumbs that feed into Avengers: Doomsday as the next release on Marvel’s calendar after First Steps. That halo effect should help push it across at least $200 million domestic. Early box office projections and estimates from various sources and observers are pretty positive. If not, though, it may finally be time to relegate the Fantastic Four to the small screen. Three strikes and you’re out.
Conclusion
The glut of superhero programming across streaming in the post-pandemic world has eroded some of the film genre’s event-level stature. Given the superhero genre’s immense contribution to film engagement recently, audience fatigue or apathy towards new characters and/or new reboots would lower what has been a consistently high floor and high ceiling lane. Without the reliability of the superhero genre, Hollywood must find a new funnel of blockbuster IP. The performance of these three films will likely tell us all we need to know about the short and long-term health of the genre.
