The day-long blackout in Spain and Portugal last week raised urgent questions for New York’s power grid: How vulnerable is the city’s energy infrastructure to a widespread meltdown? Is there enough power to meet the city’s growing electricity demand? And if not, what happens?
In New York, energy experts say there’s no need to hit the panic button just yet. New York currently has enough power plants operating or planned to meet statewide demand over roughly the next decade, according to a November 2024 forecast by the New York Independent System Operator, the nonprofit that runs the state’s grid.
But beginning in 2033, NYISO predicts power demand will exceed the supply available for the five boroughs. Energy companies are working to bring new wind and solar projects online and get massive transmission lines set to deliver power from upstate operational, among other efforts. But the Trump administration’s hostility to renewable energy is getting in the way of some projects to help fill the gap, experts say. Project cancellations and delays could leave New York poised to experience the sort of widespread blackouts that brought a swath of Europe to a standstill.
“What we’re seeing in Spain is a cautionary tale,” said Robert Freudenberg, the Regional Plan Association’s vice president of energy and environment. “The truth is we have a 20th century grid that’s trying to meet 21st century demands, and that’s not an effective place to be.”
A mix of state agencies, energy developers and utility companies are in the midst of modernizing New York’s power grid with new equipment, power lines and renewable energy developments. Much of this work is dictated by an ambitious state climate law passed in 2019, that established big, long-term mandates — committing the state to zero carbon emissions by 2050 — with lots of smaller renewable energy targets along the way. The idea is to gradually shift away from planet-warming fossil fuels and lean into renewable sources.
One such development key to this plan is Empire Wind, a $5 billion offshore wind farm planned by Norwegian energy giant Equinor near the coast of Long Island. The project was designed to deliver much-needed electricity to about half a million New York City homes beginning in 2026. But the Trump administration ordered an immediate halt on the project in April.
Freudenberg described Trump’s pause as “a direct threat towards a reliable, resilient grid” for New York. On Monday, New York Attorney General Letitia James, along with her counterparts in 17 other states, sued to block Trump’s moratorium and keep the project moving. Freudenberg believes the state has a strong case, but the suit could take months to resolve.
“Building out the grid is a long game, and we should take that to heart right now,” said Freudenberg. “We can still keep moving things along, and still keep planning and pushing.”
One critical way of doing that is building projects that help New York tap into energy from outside of the region and state in case of system failures, or less than expected sunshine and wind to produce renewable energy, said James Hanley, a New York energy analyst and former energy and environmental policy fellow at the Albany-based Empire Center for Public Policy.
“The Germans have a word called dunkelflaute which translates to dark lull, because sometimes you have a big decline in both solar and wind,” said Hanley. “We have to always have something where you can turn the switch and the energy you need is there.”
Projects like the Champlain Hudson Power Express, a power line that’s set to deliver 1,200 megawatts of Canadian hydropower into New York City, is one way New York is looking to diversify where its energy is coming from.
The massive $6 billion project, which is led by the Blackstone-owned Transmission Developers and the Canadian public utility Hydro-Québec, snakes down the state and will plug into an Astoria, Queens facility. Once operational the line will supply 20% of the city’s electric demand.
“There’s time to get these projects built,” said Hanley, “but it’s getting tight because nothing can happen overnight.”
