In retail, crisis planning once meant preparing for wildfires, hurricanes, floods—or more recently, a pandemic. But in 2025, a different kind of force majeure has emerged—not from nature, but from politics: tariffs. For American retailers large and small, the erratic tariff policy tied to Trump’s second-term agenda feels less like economic strategy and more like an act of divine upheaval.
Navigating pricing, planning and logistics has become a high-stakes guessing game. When policy shifts are announced via Trump’s social media account, trade alliances can dissolve overnight and tariff schedules flip faster than a quarterly budget cycle. Businesses aren’t operating under a stable set of rules—they’re flying blind while the rules keep changing.
When Trump reemerged as the Republican front-runner in 2024, many saw the renewed tariff threats coming from a distance as trade protectionism has remained one of the few ideological throughlines in Trump’s career in the public spotlight. Still, the speed of the threats—and the improvisational style of their rollout—has caught many executives off guard. (Trump’s stance on tariffs has already shifted several times since this article began taking shape.)
If Trump’s first term taught global business leaders anything, it’s that constant recalibration—not the policies themselves—poses the greatest threat to commercial stability. Observer spoke with dozens of retail CEOs and founders, consumer experts and supply chain strategists, and one message came through loud and clear: preserving optionality is no longer just a strategic advantage—it’s a survival skill.
Tariff threats reshape risk planning
From Wall Street to Main Street, companies aren’t just bracing for impact—they’re actively reengineering operations and supply chains to withstand what many now call a “Trump majeure.” The phrase hasn’t yet made its way into legal or contractual language, but it’s already become industry shorthand for the mounting volatility businesses face across sectors.
“I’m seeing related conversations pop up,” Bill London, an international attorney at Kimura London & White, told Observer. “The term ‘Trump majeure’ may be informal, but the disruption is real. Businesses are revisiting contracts to insert renegotiation clauses and price adjustment mechanisms triggered by tariff shifts. It’s a more secure strategy than hoping ‘force majeure’ language will cover them.”
That reality was underscored in a recent conversation with Charlie Youakim, CEO and co-founder of Sezzle, a publicly traded buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) platform serving tens of thousands of retailers. With a window into broad consumer behavior and merchant activity, Youakim has become something of a bellwether for the retail sector.
“We sit in a position where we can see patterns emerge before they hit the headlines,” Youakim told Observer. “From what we’re hearing, a lot of pure e-commerce retailers—especially those reliant on Chinese manufacturing—are scrambling right now. Some are reworking logistics, others are repricing inventory on the fly.”
While Sezzle itself may be somewhat insulated, Youakim doesn’t yet see signs of broad-based distress. “There’s no panic, but there is urgency. Everyone’s adjusting—some quietly, some aggressively. It’s a moment of recalibration more than crisis,” he said.
He also offered a pointed reminder about who feels economic shifts first. “The media calls it a recession when the upper middle class cancels vacations or cuts back on luxury. But our users—gig workers, blue-collar families, recent grads—they live in a recession every day,” he said.
Small brands scramble while insulated players seize advantage
At Minnesota’s Faribault Mill, CEO Ross Widmoyer has embraced a hyper-local model—one that, through a combination of history and serendipity, has proved remarkably resilient. Nearly all inputs, from wool to labor, are sourced domestically—the lion’s share of their workforce lives within a 15-mile radius of the factory.
“We didn’t design the business with tariffs or global instability in mind,” Widmoyer told Observer. “But because so much of what we do—our materials, labor, supply chain—happens to be domestic, we’ve found ourselves unusually insulated and incredibly agile in this moment.”
Faribault Mill employs around 100 people and brings in nearly $20 million in annual revenue. It has expanded its offerings to include apparel, accessories and high-profile design collaborations—with partners ranging from major sports brands to pop culture icons like the Peanuts characters. The company owns and operates its entire production infrastructure, including looms and finishing equipment, making it less vulnerable to supply chain shocks. And this level of insulation has allowed the company to do what’s virtually unthinkable for most retail brands: lower prices in the midst of economic upheaval.
Contrast that with entrepreneurs like Steve Skillings in South Carolina, founder of BusyBox, a small manufacturer of smart-home gadgets. Facing skyrocketing component costs due to tariffs, Skillings is on the verge of shutting down. “I’ve stopped advertising. I’m laying off contractors. There’s no capital, no SBA [Small Business Administration] help and no roadmap,” he told Observer.
The underlying truth: most retail businesses—especially those under $25 million in annual revenue—don’t have the luxury of time or the necessary resources to overhaul supply chains on short notice. They lack lobbyists and legal firepower. What they have instead is a daily survival calculus.
Jason Wingate, co-founder of Zlumber, a top-selling bed accessory brand on Amazon, put it bluntly, “You can’t just be reactive anymore. You have to build structural flexibility into the way you operate. That means diversified suppliers, agile freight partners and a deep bench of manufacturing options.”
The China dilemma
For many companies that have relied on foreign sourcing, China has long been the go-to—an unrivaled hub of scale, efficiency and manufacturing sophistication. It’s no exaggeration to say China has served as the backbone of global retail supply chains. But now that Beijing is once again squarely in Trump’s crosshairs, that reliance is looking increasingly precarious.
The problem? Moving away isn’t nearly as easy as it sounds. These supply chains were built over decades, and unwinding them brings higher costs, inconsistent regulatory regimes and fragile infrastructure. Alternatives like Vietnam, India and Mexico may be rising, but they come with their own serious constraints.
Lee Mayer, CEO of Havenly Brands, an online interior décor store with creative design services, is skeptical of rapid re-shoring. “There’s this myth that we can just onshore everything overnight,” she told Observer. “It’s not realistic. We’re already seeing price hikes of over 30 percent. Will people still buy $2,000 sofas if they know half that cost is tariffs?”
Contrast that with David’s Bridal, America’s largest bridal retailer, which has proactively restructured its global supply chain in anticipation of tariff volatility. Under the leadership of newly minted CEO Kelly Cook, the retailer shifted its China-based production from over 50 percent to just 30 percent well ahead of the most recent tariff announcement, rerouting production to facilities in Vietnam, India, the Philippines and beyond. So has Mattel, the maker of Barbie dolls and Hot Wheels cars, which has reduced its manufacturing reliance on China to 40 percent in recent years, compared with the industry-average 80 percent.
Ben Koren, CEO of Brooklyn-based Frameology, an online picture framing store, took even more dramatic steps well before Trump was sworn in for a second term, embarking on an effort to re-shore production years ago. “Now, over 90 percent of our costs are U.S.-based. It’s more expensive, yes—but far more predictable,” he told Observer.
From lobbying to redesigns, businesses build for instability
Across the board, companies are responding in different ways: some are shifting production, others are building structural flexibility into their operations, leaning into innovation, or even engaging in policy advocacy.
Emily Hosie, founder of REBEL—an online platform that resells open-box and overstock baby gear and home essentials—is lobbying for tariff exemptions on baby products. “These aren’t luxury goods. They’re required by law. Families are already stretched—this is just punitive,” Hosie told Observer. “As a retailer, we have a responsibility to collaborate, push for exemptions and stand up for our community.”
Keegan Nesvacil, CEO of Woodland Tools, which manufactures gardening and cutting tools, describes a “design-for-resilience” model. The company, which manufactures a broad range of gardening and cutting tools, integrates customer feedback and supply chain data to pivot quickly. “With recent tariffs creating complex supply chain demands, we’ve re-engineered several products to use alternative materials that aren’t tariffed, shifted component sourcing closer to home, and modularized designs so we can swap parts in or out based on availability,” he told Observer.
Many large brands have opted to stock up on inventory to get it in before more onerous tariffs take effect. Still, frontloading inventory only works for some. Shelf-stable products can be stockpiled; seasonal goods and perishables cannot. What companies need is clarity, and that remains elusive.
There’s no single path forward—just a growing recognition that navigating “Trump majeure” requires a mix of foresight, adaptability and the willingness to rethink old playbooks. Call it “Trump majeure” or just the new normal—resilience now depends on agility, optionality and the recognition that there’s no cookie-cutter playbook. The businesses that endure will be those built to bend, not break.
