In 2018, the first statewide election since Donald Trump became president, fed-up New York Democrats sent a loud message to the national party. Powerful Congressman Joe Crowley lost his primary to a progressive upstart named Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while other House incumbents survived uncomfortably close challenges. A half-dozen state Senate Democrats who had joined forces with Republicans were thrown out of Albany.
Now, with Democrats once again fuming at their party’s indecisive response to Trump’s second term, some in New York political circles see a similar dynamic brewing ahead of the 2026 Democratic primaries for Congress, governor and state Legislature.
“It’s not rocket science to look at this environment and say, hey, the last time we were looking at this environment, a whole bunch of incumbents lost their seats or had to defend them to the hilt,” said Evan Roth Smith, a New York Democratic pollster and campaign consultant.
The contours of a potential anti-incumbent wave came into view last month, when Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of Brooklyn faced unexpectedly strong blowback within his party for agreeing to advance a Republican spending bill and avoid a government shutdown. Grassroots groups demanded his resignation as leader, his House counterpart Hakeem Jeffries barely offered support, and Ocasio-Cortez declined to rule out challenging him for re-election in 2028.
The ire at Schumer came from both moderates and liberals, echoing polls that show across-the-board dissatisfaction among self-identified Democrats. Indeed, in a shift from the first Trump era, strategists say next year’s potential primaries are less likely to pit progressives against centrists and instead may hinge on measures of an incumbent’s Trump-fighting capabilities, such as their age and energy level.
“I don’t think this is an ideological primary cycle,” said Roth Smith. “It’s about, are you on [the] offense or not?”
In some ways, the waters are choppier for New York Democrats holding office now compared to 2018. The party’s approval rating is at record lows, due partly to falling support among Democrats. And New York itself is in a rougher spot, with residents voicing anxieties about affordability, crime levels that remain elevated since the pandemic, and the lingering effects of the migrant crisis.
Although Schumer himself will not be on the ballot, all 26 of New York’s U.S. House members — including 19 Democrats — will need to face voters next year, along with Gov. Kathy Hochul and the entire state Senate and Assembly.
The most high-profile challenge may happen at the state level: Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado has suggested he may run against Hochul, his own boss, in next year’s gubernatorial primary, pitching himself as a disruptor of the status quo. U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres has also moved toward a run for governor, which would set off a scramble for his Bronx congressional seat.
Political strategists reached by Crain’s said there are few concrete signs so far of any well-funded campaigns against incumbent lawmakers. But observers named a few New York House members who have vulnerabilities, at least on paper.
Jerry Nadler is an institution in Manhattan, but turns 78 this year and has had to bat down intensifying retirement rumors. The journalist Molly Jong-Fast briefly floated running against Nadler earlier this year, only to retract the rumor and call on someone else to run instead. One operative told Crain’s that “a half-dozen people” have reached out about mounting a challenge to Nadler.
Brooklyn’s Yvette Clarke barely survived a 2018 primary challenge by Adem Bunkeddeko, and is a less visible figure than many of her House colleagues. Dan Goldman narrowly prevailed in the 2022 primary for his North Brooklyn-Lower Manhattan district and won an underwhelming 66% of the vote against two barely-known challengers in his 2024 re-election.
But each of those three has strengths: Nadler easily beat fellow incumbent Carolyn Maloney in 2022 when their districts were smushed together, and he has a Trump-fighting reputation thanks to his work on the president’s 2019 impeachment trial. Clarke is part of a prominent Brooklyn political family and has made herself more visible since her 2018 near-loss. And Goldman has built up his reputation with frequent cable-news hits — and could deter challengers by drawing on his wealth as an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune.
Nadler’s chief of staff Robert Gottheim welcomed potential challengers, and noted Nadler’s wide margins of victory in recent elections.
“The congressman is running for re-election [and] will put his over 30 year record of accomplishments against anyone,” Gottheim said.
Clarke’s and Goldman’s offices did not respond to requests for comment.
Then there are more outside-the-box ideas. Progressive groups like the Democratic Socialists of America dream of unseating Hakeem Jeffries, who makes no secret of his disdain for hard-left activists, but his stature as House minority leader and on-the-ground presence in his Central Brooklyn district make that a long shot. Torres has made some enemies on the Democratic Party’s left flank for his avid support of Israel, but is a strong fundraiser and visible critic of Trump.
At least one person may tempt the odds, however: Michael Blake, the former Bronx Assemblyman now running for mayor, has told one party insider that he is thinking about challenging Torres next year if his mayoral bid fails. (Blake finished second when Torres first won the seat in a 2020 primary; Blake’s mayoral campaign did not respond to a request for comment.)
Whether more challenges will materialize down-ballot, such as to incumbent state lawmakers, remains to be seen. But there are signs of early momentum. Amanda Litman, executive director of the progressive candidate-recruitment group Run for Something, told Crain’s that 38,000 people nationwide had contacted her organization in the six months since the November election to signal interest in running for office, well over the 30,000 signups that her group had received in its first two years of existence. (About 11% of the signups that Run for Something received during the first week of April were in New York, said Litman, whose group recruits candidates for state and local offices.)
“What I’ve heard from people interested in primarying incumbents is they feel like the Democratic incumbent is not fighting Trump enough, is not willing to be public enough,” Litman said. “I think we’re going to see across-the-board pushes in New York.”
This year’s city elections could have a clarifying effect on the 2026 races. Depending on the outcome of the June city primaries, for example, ambitious Democrats who fell short at the local level could suddenly be looking for their next gig; that list could include mayoral candidates like Comptroller Brad Lander (who lives in Goldman’s district) and State Sen. Zellnor Myrie (who lives in Clarke’s), or comptroller candidates like Councilman Justin Brannan (who previously indicated interest in challenging his Republican Congresswoman, Nicole Malliotakis).
If an anti-incumbent wave does materialize nationally next year, some strategists believe New York could be relatively unaffected. New York’s congressional delegation is unusually high-profile, and members get plenty of press in their districts thanks to the city’s huge media market. Plus, some natural selection is at work: The most obviously vulnerable incumbents have already lost, such as Crowley and Eliot Engel (who was beaten by Jamaal Bowman in 2020), leaving only the politicians who are relatively strong.
Of course, few would have predicted Ocasio-Cortez’s win more than a year out, either. But Trip Yang, a progressive strategist, said the dynamics have shifted since 2018.
“Since that time period, incumbents are much more hands-on and are not taking their re-elections for granted,” he said. Campaigns like AOC’s, he said, “are not easily replicated.”
