With less than a month to go in the Democratic primary for mayor, it’s safe to say the race is static.
Andrew Cuomo, the former governor who resigned in disgrace almost four years ago, is breezing his way toward the nomination. Most polls show him around 40%, which is a strong enough first-place showing to win a ranked-choice voting primary if the election ended tomorrow. The runner-up remains Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old democratic socialist assemblyman. The rest of the field trails both men significantly.
Can this all change? There’s a small chance, though time is clearly running out. Cuomo has run a middling campaign: bungling campaign finance board paperwork, rarely appearing in front of the media and ham-fistedly using AI help to write a housing platform. If Cuomo wins, this campaign will not be remembered for its dynamism.
But it’s got Cuomo himself, who ran the state for more than a decade and is convincing Democrats that he’s the best man to stand up to Donald Trump. It’s also got a super PAC — nearly $10 million backing Cuomo, with even more on the way. The city’s business class has lined up behind Cuomo and ensured, no matter how much he stumbles, the PAC will be there to keep hammering the airwaves.
His opposition has been weak. The Working Families Party, once a vaunted hybrid of labor unions and liberal activists that could shape the course of municipal politics, has been irrelevant in the primary. The WFP never funded a PAC against Cuomo and can’t even settle on a ranked slate of Democrats with less than a month to go. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hasn’t helped them. She’s expected to back at least one Democrat in the primary but has kept her powder dry.
The PACs supporting the other candidates haven’t done much. New Yorkers for Lower Costs, the group backing Mamdani, has taken in under $300,000. An anti-Cuomo super PAC, New Yorkers for Better Leadership, has raised a pathetic $2,000 since its formation.
With Cuomo winning the backing of most large labor unions and a decent array of elected officials — more than any rival, but less than what you’d expect from an ex-governor polling 20 points ahead of the field — the opposition has been fractured and feeble. For progressives and leftists, the only bright spot has been Mamdani, who maxed out on fundraising and has made himself into a contender.
If Cuomo is going to be stopped, City Comptroller Brad Lander or City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams will have to rise quickly. Lander has underperformed throughout the primary, and his political career may very well be over after June 24. Adams, of no relation to the beleaguered current mayor, could have been a strong contender but didn’t enter the race until March. She is just now qualifying for matching funds, and most New Yorkers don’t know who she is.
Candidates like Scott Stringer, Zellnor Myrie and Whitney Tilson who are polling in the low single digits should train all their resources and energies on stopping Cuomo. Their ads should all be anti-Cuomo. If they have a TV budget, it should be exclusively concerned, at this point, with Cuomo. Instead, all three have run ads only about themselves.
Looking less and less relevant is Eric Adams, who is skipping the primary and praying for a win as an independent in the general election. Even if the polarizing Cuomo is the nominee, it’s difficult to see what path to victory Adams has. Since he was indicted last year, the campaign finance board has denied him matching funds, and he will be outspent by Cuomo or any Democratic nominee. Republicans, meanwhile, will back Curtis Sliwa, not Adams.
Even more likely than Cuomo becoming the next mayor is Adams leaving City Hall as a one-term mayor. That seems inevitable.
Ross Barkan is a journalist and author in New York City.
