Beleaguered Mayor Eric Adams is going independent, planning to run in the general election on a ballot line of his own creation. Skipping the Democratic primary, he will appear on the self-created Safe Streets, Affordable City line.
The obvious question to ask is whether Adams can get another term as mayor this way. With his approval ratings so low, and his poll numbers in the Democratic primary, on the balance, dismal — he’s well behind former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has emerged as the clear front-runner — could he find a path to victory in November? Anything is theoretically possible. He was not going to win the Democratic primary, so dodging it does give new life to his campaign for the moment at least.
But winning as an independent or third-party candidate in New York City is incredibly hard — the last mayor to do it was John Lindsay in 1969 — and Adams isn’t exactly well-positioned to beat a Democrat and a Republican. The Trump Justice Department saved him from prison by dropping the corruption charges against him, but New Yorkers judge him harshly for aligning himself so closely with the chaotic president.
After witnessing several years of scandals and policy setbacks, New Yorkers appear eager to put someone else in City Hall. Cuomo had many of his own scandals, but voters seem ready to forgive: A decade in the governor’s mansion holds a certain appeal. And most of the other Democrats running against Cuomo have yet to break through, though they still have some time before the June 24 primary.
No matter who seizes the Democratic nomination — Cuomo or no Cuomo — Adams’ path to winning in November is quite narrow. Conservatives and registered Republicans will choose Curtis Sliwa, the GOP candidate. Most Democrats will prefer the nominee on the Democratic ballot line. Adams might be hoping an insurgent topples Cuomo in the primary, like the socialist Zohran Mamdani, and Adams can consolidate Democrats and independents who are wary of a leftist mayor. Or, perhaps he’s banking on a Cuomo victory and Mamdani’s decision (or Brad Lander’s, perhaps) to remain in the general election on the Working Families Party ballot line.
But even in those scenarios, it’s hard to see where Adams gets many votes. He has a base of working-class Black and Latino voters but the coalition that sent him to City Hall has shrunk dramatically. It’s unclear whether the city’s Campaign Finance Board will ever award him public matching funds, given his fundraising irregularities. Absent these funds, he’ll be heavily outspent by the Democratic nominee.
The best Adams might hope for is to play spoiler: to campaign aggressively in the fall for some slice of the electorate that isn’t interested in Sliwa, or the Democratic nominee, or another little-known independent candidate, attorney Jim Walden. While his chances of throwing the election to the Working Families Party or another non-Democrat are slim, he can prove there’s still some lingering affection for the Adams administration.
Assuming a loss, Adams might be on the lookout for a new job next year. Though he hasn’t formally left the Democratic Party, he’s drawn very close to Trump and the wider MAGA universe. Tucker Carlson is an Adams fan. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine Adams taking a job in the Trump administration, following the well-trod path of ex-Democrats like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard. The MAGA movement loves a good turncoat, and Adams will certainly fit that bill.
Ross Barkan is a journalist and author in New York City.
