At a recent mayoral forum, several of the candidates were asked about next year: would they support Gov. Kathy Hochul for re-election?
Most hedged. Watching them answer created the impression that Hochul, the incumbent with middling approval ratings, might be in trouble. Widely popular leaders, certainly, inspire public votes of confidence.
But it would be a mistake to underestimate Hochul a year out from what might be a competitive Democratic primary and general election. Yes, two of her potential opponents, Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres and Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, are potent. Yes, the fact that her own lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, deserted her and may primary her too is a cause for concern.
No, none of that guarantees her downfall.
While Mayor Eric Adams appears terminally weakened, Hochul herself is not nearly as hated. Her overall job approval rating of 46% in the latest Siena poll is nothing to celebrate but is also respectable, given the anti-incumbent mood that permeates American politics right now.
There’s evidence to suggest President Donald Trump might be good for Hochul. Hochul has held firm on congestion pricing, which has steadily grown in popularity, and has struck the proper balance between negotiating with the mercurial president and showing the public she’s open to battling him.
Hochul is nothing like Bernie Sanders, who draws enormous crowds railing against oligarchy, but she’s also not earning the ire of the Democratic base. Democrats seem to perceive her as a no-nonsense leader who is not, like Attorney General Letitia James, going to be bullied by Trump. She’s struck an intriguing middle ground — not acquiescing to Trump but also recognizing loud resistance will only carry you so far.
In the Siena poll, neither Torres nor Delgado performed particularly well. Delgado was at 11% and Torres was at 10%. If both men run in the primary next year, the vote will be split and Hochul will cruise to victory. If Torres is her sole opponent — he is more well-known than Delgado, and might be able to raise more money — Hochul will have to worry a bit more.
But Torres, for all his charisma and relative youth (and ability, as an Afro-Latino from the Bronx, to cut into Hochul’s nonwhite support), still has vulnerabilities. It is hard enough to primary a sitting governor, but even harder, perhaps, to do it from the right in a Democratic primary. Torres has been blasting Hochul for crime in the subway and other quality-of-life issues, sounding similar to Tom Suozzi, the centrist congressman who ran against Hochul in 2022.
Suozzi was beaten badly, finishing with just 13% of the vote. Torres should do better. Yet it’s unclear how much room there is to Hochul’s right when she’s already a relative moderate, defending Israel almost as much as Torres does — this has become his signature issue in Congress — and even proposing a mask ban in public to deter leftist protesters. To do damage to Hochul, Torres will have to excite voters within New York City, and curry some favor with the vote-rich progressive neighborhoods which helped Andrew Cuomo’s two primary challengers, Zephyr Teachout and Cynthia Nixon, clear 30% of the vote despite getting enormously outspent.
As of now, it’s going to be difficult for Torres to scoop up left-leaning voters who are unenthused by Hochul because he’s been combative with the progressive left in Congress, especially on Israel. When Jessica Ramos, a progressive state senator who is running a long-shot campaign for mayor, was asked about whether she’d endorse Hochul, she demurred. But she added one caveat: if it was Torres opposing Hochul, she’d happily back the incumbent.
It should be remembered, too, incumbent governors in New York tend to last a long time if they don’t run into scandal. George Pataki served for 12 years. Cuomo would have made 12 if he hadn’t been forced from office after getting accused of sexual harassment. (He’s now a front-runner for mayor.) Hochul has overseen a scandal-free administration thus far, and her opponents may struggle to find the single issue that knocks her out. Couple that reality with Hochul’s fundraising prowess, and it’s Torres, Delgado, and Lawler who might be on the outside looking in next year.
Ross Barkan is a journalist and author in New York City.
