The outlook suddenly isn’t great for the Republicans in Congress who have to run for re-election next year — including those in New York.
Tuesday night was unequivocally excellent for Democrats. Susan Crawford, a liberal judge in Wisconsin, easily won a pivotal state Supreme Court race there, defeating a Republican judge, Brad Schimel, who was strongly backed by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Musk invested more than $25 million of his own money, campaigned personally for Schimel, and posted repeatedly about the race on X, the social media platform he owns. It was a campaign, he said at one point, that could determine the future of Western civilization.
Crawford ran well ahead of Kamala Harris in the state Trump narrowly won last year and proved Democrats are highly motivated to vote for their own and against Trump-aligned candidates. Off-year elections have also become a strength for them as college-educated voters — the kind likely to participate in more elections — sort themselves into the Democratic Party. Still, the good news for Democrats is that turnout spiked compared to another competitive Wisconsin Supreme Court race in 2023.
Republicans did win the two Florida U.S. House seats vacated by Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz. But there was only so much comfort they could take in those wins. The Democratic candidates ran quite strongly in both races, even though both are safe Republican districts that Trump easily won last year. The Democratic overperformance made it apparent why Trump decided not to nominate New York’s Elise Stefanik to be U.N. Ambassador after all: though her North Country district is very Republican, a special election could have made the Democrat running unusually competitive.
None of this should be too shocking. In 2017, Democrats ran well in Trump’s first year, and those victories presaged a 2018 blue wave that swept Democrats into the House majority and made Nancy Pelosi speaker again. Republicans did hold the Senate in that midterm and the advantageous map they enjoy in 2026 makes, at this point, a GOP Senate majority likely come 2027.
But the elections last night might be an indication that the blue wave of 2026 could crest higher than 2018’s. Many Democrats and independents, who are confronting Trump once more and feel deeply alienated by DOGE’s attacks on the federal government, are ready to punish the party in power. In 2018, Trump enjoyed a growing economy and an era of low inflation and rock-bottom interest rates. This time, inflation remains, and his tariffs won’t help matters.
Trump’s approval ratings are falling and Musk’s, in just about every recent survey, are even worse. Democrats made the Wisconsin race all about Musk, and the strategy paid off perfectly. Next year, every swing congressional race can become a referendum on the Trump-Musk-DOGE strategy, as well as the economy. If House Republicans follow through with cutting Medicaid, that will be another enormous political liability.
In New York, Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler — if he chooses to seek re-election — could be endangered. Though his district trended to the right in 2024, it had supported Joe Biden in 2020 and could see a rise in Democratic turnout. Lawler is currently considering whether to run against Gov. Kathy Hochul. If Lawler vacates his seat to run for governor, the general election could very well favor the Democrat. Other New York Republicans such as Long Island’s Nick LaLota, who kept his seat with relative ease last year, are surely less than thrilled by this week’s results.
For Republicans to recover any of their standing, they’ll probably need a quick, painless divorce from Musk, and hope that he no longer remains the face of their party. It’s hard, though, to imagine the world’s richest man shuffling off quietly.
Ross Barkan is a journalist and author in New York City.
