Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photo: Getty Images
After what must have seemed to Republicans (or at least those who don’t dismiss all polls as “fake news”) like a sickening downward lurch in April, Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings appear to have stabilized in May. But he remains more unpopular than popular, just as he was for virtually all of his first term.
According to the Silver Bulletin polling averages, Trump’s net job approval improved from minus 9 percent (43.8 percent approval, 52.8 percent disapproval) on April 30 to minus 6.2 percent (45.0 percent approval, 51.2 percent disapproval) on May 15. But some of the improvement for Trump mostly involved the mix of polls being released during that time period, with new numbers from Trump-friendly outlets like Insider Advantage/Trafalgar (46 percent approval, 44 percent disapproval), Big Data (48 percent approval, 47 percent disapproval), and Quantas Insights (48 percent approval, 48 percent disapproval), along with a pro-Trump trend at the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll (most recently 51 percent approval, 47 percent disapproval).
A better picture of the trend lines can probably be derived from comparisons of polls from the same outlet over time. Economist-YouGov had Trump at 43 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval in late April, and at 44 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval in both early and mid-May. Similarly Reuters-Ipsos showed 42 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval in late April and 44 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval in mid-May. Morning Consult’s tracking poll found an identical 46 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval ratio in early and mid-May. Silver Bulletin’s averages on the intensity of approval and disapproval are also pretty stable: On April 30, 27 percent strongly approved and 42.4 percent strongly disapproved; on May 15, 27.4 percent strongly approved and 41.4 percent strongly disapproved. All in all, the picture is of numbers not moving much at all after the serious erosion of Trump’s job approval after the tariff announcements of “Liberation Day” (April 2).
Silver Bulletin shows similar trends lines on Trump’s job-approval rating on handling particular issues. His negative ratios on the economy (currently minus 13 percent) and trade (currently minus 15 percent) were slightly better as April moved into May, and slightly worse on inflation (now minus 26.5 percent). His job-approval rating on immigration has drifted up from marginally negative to marginally positive (now plus 1.4 percent).
Recent stability also characterizes the polling metric that will become increasingly important as the 2026 midterm elections grow nearer: the generic congressional ballot. According to RealClearPolitics’ averages, Democrats have a two-point lead (45.5 percent to 43.5 percent) in the generic ballot, with relatively small variation in the various polls.
