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Throughout the long legal fight over the deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia and other noncriminal residents of this country, Democrats have held an extended debate over the wisdom of focusing on Trump’s perceived strong point of immigration policy instead of refusing to speak of anything other than the economy and Trump’s unpopular tariffs. In urging Democrats not to fall prey to the “distraction” of the Abrego Garcia saga, California governor Gavin Newsom memorably referred to immigration as Republicans’ “80-20 issue,” making it dangerous turf for the opposition party.
But even as the argument continues, the ground beneath it is shifting. Immigration isn’t an “80-20 issue” for Trump; it may not even be a net positive at all. Three recent national polls now show approval ratings for the president’s handling of immigration policy underwater. It’s at 45 percent approval versus 46 percent disapproval as of April 21, per Reuters-Ipsos; 45 percent approval versus 50 percent disapproval as of April 9, according to Quinnipiac; and exactly the same 45 percent approval to 50 percent disapproval ratio as of April 22, according to Economist-YouGov. The trend is pretty clearly negative for Trump: An early-March Economist-YouGov poll showed 53 percent of Americans approving of Trump’s handling of immigration while only 40 percent disapproved. And it’s not like this is simply a reflection of an overall slide in popularity: The most recent polls generally show the president’s overall job-approval numbers as quite stable after a steady decline in the early days of his second administration.
There isn’t much data available on what might have contributed to Trump’s declining popularity on immigration, but the most recent Economist-YouGov survey did ask if Abrego Garcia should be returned to the United States, and 50 percent responded “yes” as opposed to 28 percent responding “no” and the rest unsure. Interestingly enough, only 54 percent of self-identified Republicans said “no”; fully 29 percent were unsure. Unsurprisingly, independents are driving the decline in approval of Trump’s overall handling of immigration; 50 percent of them approved in the March Economist-YouGov survey, while only 38 percent approved in mid-April. But there was slight erosion even among Republicans.
So it’s possible, if not certain, that the spotlight Democrats have shone on the Abrego Garcia case and the cruelty and contempt for law it reflects have actually dented Trump’s popularity on his strongest issue. It’s telling that this is happening at the very early stages of Trump’s mass-deportation initiative, before ICE raids and flights to El Salvador and Venezuela really begin to affect large immigrant populations and the industries that depend on them. If this trend continues, it may occur to Team Trump that the joyfully performative atmosphere surrounding its handling of immigrants (typified by Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem, who never misses an opportunity to dress up in ICE garb and pose with shattered and shackled deportees) isn’t a good look after all, much as it entertains the MAGA base.
