To: Interested Parties
From: Bradley Honan, Honan Strategy Group
Date: March 25, 2025
Re: Topline Polling Data: NYC Mayoral Race
We have just completed our third wave of public opinion polling among 909 New York City Democratic primary voters about the June race for Mayor. As we have done previously, we surveyed likely Democratic primary voters with specific, confirmed prior primary voting history, and included a segment of anti-Trump “surge” voters. Here is the readout from the polling data.
Ballot for the Democratic Primary for Mayor
In the ballot for Mayor, Former Governor Andrew Cuomo has increased his lead from our prior wave of polling by 3 percentage points and now leads the race with 41% of the vote. Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is up 6 points and receives 18% of the vote. City Comptroller Brad Lander gets 8% of the vote and is in third place. Mayor Eric Adams receives 6% of the vote. Former City Comptroller Scott Stringer and Speaker Adrienne Adams both get 4% of the vote. 15% of primary voters remain undecided.
Question Text: If the Democratic Primary Election for Mayor of New York City were held today and the candidates were Adrienne Adams, Eric Adams, Michael Blake, Andrew Cuomo, Brad Lander, Zohran Mamdani, Zellnor Myrie, Jessica Ramos, Scott Stringer, and Whitney Tilson, for whom would you vote?
Ranked-Choice Voting Simulation
We ran a simulation of the City’s system of ranked-choice voting. Andrew Cuomo beats Zohran Mamdani in the 8th round of voting, winning 66% to Mamdani’s 34%. Cuomo reaches the 50% threshold by the 5th round of voting.
Favorability
Andrew Cuomo and Scott Stringer lead the field of candidates with the highest favorability levels. Compared with our February poll, Mamdani is becoming better known and better liked (the change in his favorable ratings is +11). Cuomo’s unfavorable ratings declined (-7) since our February poll.
In aggregate, Cuomo’s net positive ratings are +11 since our February poll and Mamdani’s are also +11 since February.
Many of the other candidates continue to receive very high unfamiliarity ratings.
Question Text: For each of the following names, please indicate if you are familiar with that person, and if so, whether you have a very favorable view of that person, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of them.
Mayoral Attributes & Performance
New to the polling this wave, we asked voters to evaluate several attributes on how important each of the characteristics is for the next Mayor to have, and which candidate best possesses those qualities. Andrew Cuomo leads on every attribute tested, including a record of accomplishment and knows how to keep the city safe. With the exception of Cuomo, Mamdani performs better than any other candidate in the race.
Questions Text: Please indicate how important each of the following attributes is for the next Mayor of New York City to have. / Please indicate which candidate you feel best represents each statement.
Eric Adams
The survey asked voters to evaluate how likely they would be to vote for Eric Adams today, and whether they would vote for him if he were to run for reelection as either a Republican or Independent.
We found that more than 8 in 10 Democratic primary voters are unwilling to support Eric Adams no matter what he says or does. Only 1 in 10 or less would consider voting for Eric Adams if he ran for Mayor as either a Republican or Independent, rather than whoever becomes the Democratic nominee.
Question Text: Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements.
Survey Methodology
Honan Strategy Group surveyed 909 likely Democratic primary voters via a text-to-web survey methodology from March 18 to March 20, 2025. The survey achieved an overall margin of sampling error of = +/- 3.24% and larger for subgroups. The survey sampling was drawn to reflect the known voting population characteristics of the New York City Democratic primary voting universe including; race, age, gender, and borough. As in prior polls, we included a sampling of Anti-Trump surge voters.
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