Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
As the uncertain consequences of Donald Trump’s trade war and tariffs continue to play out across the U.S. and world economy, one question looms above any other: Why do Trump and his advisers keep talking about dolls?
For more than a week, the issue of doll prices, doll shortages, and, most crucially, doll-ownership expectations has come up again and again. Are toy dolls some kind of universally applicable economic indicator? Have experts vastly underestimated the demand for these toys in the imagination of the president? Is this more or less important than what kind of lightsaber Trump is depicted using? Here are the results of our brief, yet perhaps overly deep, investigation.
What did Trump say to start all this doll talk?
During a White House Cabinet meeting on April 30, a reporter asked Trump if he would speak to President Xi about trade, and Trump launched into an answer suggesting that Chinese factories were struggling thanks to his tariffs. He added that Chinese manufacturers had done very well under President Biden, “selling us stuff, much of it we don’t need.”
“You know somebody said, ‘Oh, the shelves are gonna be open,’” Trump said, presumably meaning empty. “Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally, but we’re not talking about something that we have to go out of our way— they have ships that are loaded up with stuff, much of which — not all of it — but much of which we don’t need.”
In summary, Trump essentially said that America’s children don’t need 30 cheap dolls, and that two slightly more expensive dolls would suffice.
So Trump is saying Americans don’t need dolls?
Not more than two.
Is Trump flexible on the proposed doll ration?
Apparently. Days later, during an interview with Meet the Press, Trump was asked about his acknowledgment that dolls would cost more because of the tariffs he has imposed. He responded by dramatically revising his previous doll numbers.
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP:
I don’t think that a beautiful baby girl needs — that’s 11 years old — needs to have 30 dolls. I think they can have three dolls or four dolls because what we were doing with China was just unbelievable. We had a trade deficit of hundreds of billions of dollars with China.
KRISTEN WELKER:
When you say, “They could have three dolls instead of 30 dolls,” are you saying you’re —
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP:
I’m saying they don’t need to have 30 dolls —
KRISTEN WELKER:
— that Americans could see empty store shelves?
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP:
No. No, I’m not saying that. I’m just saying they don’t need to have 30 dolls. They can have three.
It’s not clear whether Trump was pressured by the doll lobby to up his quotient by 50 to 100 percent.
What about pencils? Will children be able to have hundreds of pencils?
Trump wasn’t done making news in his Meet the Press interview. Immediately after raising the doll limit, he added: “They don’t need to have 250 pencils. They can have five.”
Trump: “I don’t think a beautiful baby girl that’s 11 years old needs to have 30 dolls. I think they can have three dolls or four dolls … they don’t need to have 250 pencils. They can have five.” pic.twitter.com/H9nBN0Eh2q
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 4, 2025
It’s a mystery why Trump suggested such a drastic reduction in American children’s personal pencil stockpiles. He has been dismissing America’s need for Canadian lumber, but the vast majority of America’s pencil stock is manufactured overseas. The consequences of such a reduction in pencils also remains to be seen. The children who will likely break dozens of pencils per day in frustration over the doll shortages may need to find another outlet for their aggression.
Is Trump getting sick of talking about dolls?
On May 4, Trump reset doll expectations yet again. Aboard Air Force One, Trump told a reporter that “all I’m saying is that you don’t — a young lady, a 10-year-old girl, 9-year-old girl, 15-year-old girl — doesn’t need 37 dolls. She could be very happy with two or three or four or five.”
“Let’s not waste time, a lot of time, on a stupid question,” Trump added, but the only reason anyone is talking about dolls is because Trump keeps talking about dolls — and inflating the numbers.
Did Trump promise fewer, more expensive dolls for kids during his presidential campaign?
No, he did not, but he did vow to impose sweeping tariffs, though a lot of investors and business leaders apparently didn’t take him seriously.
Did the U.S. Treasury secretary really say that fewer dolls would lead to a better life?
Yes, he did. During a May 6 appearance on Fox News, Scott Bessent explained how childhood doll ownership may not translate to adult happiness in Donald Trump’s America:
This reporter behind me was quite snarky the other day when President Trump talked about the girl having two dolls and he said, well, what — the president didn’t take the question, but he said, “What would you tell that girl?” And I said, “I would tell that young girl that you will have a better life than your parents, that you and your family, thanks to President Trump, can now be confident again that you will have a better life than your parents, which, working-class Americans had abandoned that idea. Your family will own a home. You will be able to … advance. You will have a good education. You will have economic freedom.”
Bessent says that little girls who are sad about having fewer dolls should just have it explained to them that they will have a better life for it pic.twitter.com/gyXPlVnXWa
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 6, 2025
Are doll prices actually going up? Will there be shortages?
Barbie-maker Mattel has announced that it is raising the prices of some products in the U.S. to offset Trump’s tariffs. “Where necessary, we will be taking pricing action in the U.S.,” Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz told CNBC. He also said that he did not expect toy manufacturers to move their manufacturing operations to the U.S., which is one of the justifications Trump has used for his trade warring.
Toy-makers and retailers are also reportedly pausing their orders for the 2024 winter holidays amid a general panic within the toy industry over Trump’s China tariffs. The New York Times reports:
The alarm in the industry is palpable, with the companies predicting product shortages and higher prices. Some business owners, citing how crucial holiday sales are to their bottom lines, are consulting bankruptcy lawyers.
“We have a frozen supply chain that is putting Christmas at risk,” said Greg Ahearn, chief executive of the Toy Association, a U.S. industry group representing 850 toy manufacturers. “If we don’t start production soon, there’s a high probability of a toy shortage this holiday season.”
What about doll housing?
The price of doll houses will also likely rise due to the tariffs. The GOP’s 2024 platform said that Trump and Republicans would “promote homeownership through tax incentives that support first-time homebuyers.” It did not, however, offer a policy position on doll homeownership.
How many creepy dolls does Trump think children should have?
We don’t know. The president has not indicated whether or not he was also factoring in creepy dolls — nor has he opined on whether he agrees with the many people who believe all dolls are creepy. From his comments, it appears as though he considers doll collecting to be a normal, albeit possibly wasteful, pastime for American children.
Are foreign dolls poisoning America’s children?
White House domestic-policy adviser Stephen Miller weighed in on the doll debate during a White House press conference on May 1, insisting that he and other American parents would rather have more expensive dolls that are made in America than potentially toxic dolls made in China:
Stephen Miller: “If you had a choice between a doll from China that might have lead paint from it that is not as well constructed, as a doll made in America that has a highly environmental and regulatory standard … and those two products are both on Amazon, that yes, you… pic.twitter.com/HfisWdbJ0b
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 1, 2025
In 2007, millions of toys, including dolls, that were manufactured in China for Mattel/Fisher-Price, Marvel, and other companies were recalled after it was discovered that they were coated with lead paint. It was the most widespread recent incident involving China-made toys.
What kind of experience or expertise does Donald Trump have with dolls?
He has never confirmed that he owns any dolls himself, but he probably does. Back in 2004, he marketed a 12-inch talking Trump doll, licensed by the Trump Organization, which spouted 17 phrases recorded by Trump including Apprentice lines like “I have no choice to tell you you’re fired” and others like “Have an ego. There’s nothing wrong with ego.” (Yes, it was made in China.)
“The hair is fantastic!” Trump said of the doll, though he thought the doll’s suit looked cheap.
Numerous other Trump dolls have hit the market, as well, so it’s possible he owns multiple varieties. But so far, doll displays have not been part of Trump’s extensive White House makeover efforts.
